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Energy investment fell to a low point

News Source:http://www.jinchemical.com/ ; SendDate:2020-6-9 15:44:47 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said recently that the impact of the global economic collapse caused by the outbreak of the new crown has forced the agency to reverse its forecast for investment growth in the energy industry this year, from a 2% increase to a sharp 20%, which means that investment in the global energy industry this year will be $400 billion less than in 2019. In addition, with the energy investment falling to a historical low, the impact of the epidemic may aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand of some petrochemical products caused by the sharp expansion of production capacity in recent years.

The IEA report shows that investment in the oil and gas sector is likely to decline the most this year, with spending expected to fall by a third. Among them, investment in the shale oil and gas industry in the United States declined the most, and investment is expected to halve.

"We see the impact of the new crown epidemic everywhere, but our data show that investment in oil and gas will be reduced by a third this year, even higher than in 2014," said IEA director Birol. In the oil and gas industry and even the whole energy industry, shale oil in the United States has been the biggest hit. We expect us shale oil investment to decrease by 50% this year, with a huge impact. "

The IEA said there was a time lag between investment and output, so the impact of significant capital spending cuts in the oil and gas sector may not be felt this year, but will be significant in the coming years. Tim Gould, head of IEA's resources and investment department, said that a significant reduction in investment in 2020 could reduce global oil supply by 200000 barrels per day in 2025, but if the level of investment remains depressed for several consecutive years, the reduction in global oil supply in 2025 could significantly increase to 9 million barrels per day.

The IEA reported that clean energy investment will also decline this year, with an expected decline of 11%. Surprisingly, the number of coal projects approved in the first quarter of this year, mainly in Asia, doubled year-on-year.

"The results of this report are disturbing in many ways, and there are big risks in making choices," Birol said. The new crown epidemic may affect the world's energy model in the next few years. " Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, global investment in clean energy technologies (including renewable energy, energy efficiency and battery storage) has been around $600 billion a year, but this year will see a decline. The drop in the price of electricity generated by solar photovoltaic and land-based wind power technology means that the impact of investment in clean energy field has been increasing over time. However, to achieve the goal of controlling the global temperature rise within 2 in this century, the expenditure still needs to double the level in the past five years.

Birol said whether investment in clean energy will increase will depend on the stimulus plan currently being formulated by governments.

Tim Gould said that most of the oil giants have also begun to increase their investment in the petrochemical industry as a strategy to diversify their portfolios and shift to high margin products. The sharp decrease in investment spending of oil giants may also affect their investment decisions in the petrochemical industry. "In recent years, investment in petrochemical facilities has accelerated significantly, far exceeding the growth rate of demand. This mismatch between short-term capacity expansion and short-term demand may be exacerbated by the impact of the new crown epidemic, but in the long run, the demand outlook for petrochemicals is still strong. "

He also said that the production of bulk petrochemicals along the Gulf coast of the United States has increased significantly, mainly by using cheap raw materials from shale, which led to the production growth greatly exceeding the demand growth. Last year, the new ethylene production capacity exceeded the new consumption demand by 60%, and it is expected to further expand this year.

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