Perret associates, a coal industry consultant, said in April that it had predicted a global coal surplus of 56 million tons in 2020, mainly due to the global anti epidemic measures.
"Novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in the world in 3-4 months this year, which has caused a sharp drop in coal demand and a downward trend in coal prices. In May, the international coal market began to warm up and continued to pick up in June. " Perrault said.
However, the company said there was still uncertainty about future global coal supply due to the uncertainty in China's import policy in the second half of this year.
"Since the implementation of the blockade measures in February, China's economy has continued to recover. It is estimated that China's demand for steam coal will increase by 2.3% to 3.2 billion tons in 2020." The company said. It is estimated that the global demand for steam coal will drop by 8% to 80 million tons in 2020.
Global steam coal exports are expected to drop to 94 million tons in 2020, according to Perrault. Among them, Indonesia's steam coal export fell the most.
The company estimates that Indonesia's steam coal export volume is expected to be 8-16 million tons this year, while Russia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia and the United States and other major coal exporting countries will experience varying degrees of decline.
"US coal exports are expected to decline by nearly 50% year-on-year, while Colombia's exports are expected to decline by 15.7%. Last year, the coal export volume of the two countries is expected to be 34 million tons and 75 million tons respectively The company said.