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The trend of foreign commodities may be stronger than that of domestic ones

News Source:http://www.jinchemical.com/ ; SendDate:2021-4-13 16:14:40 

Since last year, the fluctuation of the commodity market has increased, and domestic enterprises are facing challenges. Recently, at the "Symposium on derivatives for industrial development" jointly sponsored by DCE and Zheshang futures, the industry insiders said that it is necessary for domestic enterprises to improve their understanding and application of derivatives, so as to make proper use of derivatives in future production and operation.

According to Xu Tao, chief strategist of Zheshang futures, there are four major driving factors that affect asset pricing in the near future, namely, marginal changes in liquidity, the expected and actual situation of global economic recovery, upstream supply constraints and disturbance in the progress of new crown vaccination. Considering that the logic of reinflation in the market has a great connection with market liquidity and fundamental factors in the past, he said that trading in the future also needs to focus on the changes of the above two factors.

As for the economic recovery and the promotion of vaccines, in Xu Tao's view, there is a certain connection between the two. To be specific, nearly 60 million people in the United States have been vaccinated. Once the number of vaccinated people reaches 135 million, the United States will gradually enter the stage of mass immunization, and its economy will go to a higher level.

In his view, the main contradiction lies in whether the future inflation of domestic and foreign markets will continue. Especially in the case that the domestic economy has returned to the new normal and the marginal liquidity has tightened, considering that under the background of deleveraging, the growth rate of M2 and social finance will match the growth rate of GDP. The peak of M2 growth means the end of domestic inflation trade and the peak of commodity price.

As for the overseas market, Xu Tao believes that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a loose policy before the employment rate recovers, and there is limited room for the US PMI to continue to rise month on month. In addition, the US bond yield will probably remain in the range of 1.8% - 2.0%. Overseas replenishment may slow down in a short period, but the inflation trade is not over.

In the context of the continuation of overseas inflation transactions and the end of domestic inflation transactions, he believes that in the future, the probability rate of foreign commodities will continue to be stronger than that of domestic ones, and the profits of domestic enterprises will continue to be compressed.

Under such circumstances, experts generally believe that it is necessary for relevant enterprises to make good use of derivatives to further expand their sales channels and paths while enhancing their risk aversion ability.

Taking PVC as an example, according to Ye Chen, deputy general manager of PVC business department of Hangzhou Zhongjing Industrial Co., Ltd. of Jiayue products group, there is a tight balance between global supply and demand of PVC under the "China cycle" of production capacity and the situation that the supply side is driven by the United States. Considering that in the case of periodic mismatch between supply and demand of domestic and foreign imports and exports this year, the absolute price ratio will fluctuate significantly, which will have a greater impact on the production profits of customers, he believes that it is necessary for relevant enterprises to manage their own risks reasonably through derivatives.

In fact, according to Wei Zhenxiang, President of Guoye cross border e-commerce (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., enterprises not only need the pricing benchmark similar to spot trading index and specific guidance on the use of derivatives, but also need to further expand their sales channels and paths through e-commerce and derivatives. "In addition to standard products, spot enterprises also have greater demand for pricing and hedging of non-standard products. However, there is a lack of futures software that meets the needs of enterprises in the current market. "In order to help enterprises better understand the futures and derivatives market, the big business exchange has launched the "enterprise style plan" based on over-the-counter options and basis trade since 2019, and carried out industrial service innovation pilot among enterprises through traditional ways such as meetings and training, aiming to provide practical opportunities for real enterprises. According to experts from the Industrial Development Department of Dalian Institute of Commerce, the "enterprise style plan" platform has played a good role so far. It has attracted the active participation of representative industrial enterprises and diversified project modes, which further promotes the deepening of the concept of combining the future with the present. In 2021, Dase will further promote the application of on-site and off-site options and basis trade mode in real enterprises and the implementation of "enterprise style plan" by eliminating enterprise scale restrictions, simplifying project data and acceptance process, and improving support standards.

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